This week, the Swiss Bank Sarasin published the 12th edition of their solar industry report, covering all three solar technologies: solar heating and cooling (ST), photovoltaics (PV), and concentrating solar power (CSP). The chapter on solar thermal identifies great differences in the market development of national markets and regions. While the Chinese market continues to shine, many European countries are suffering from decreasing or stagnating markets. Nevertheless, Sarasin predicts a great future, with a global average growth of 12% per year until 2020.
“For 2011 we assume a global newly installed area of around 64 million m2 (44.8 GWth), or an increase of around 10%. This growth continues to be driven mainly by China,” explains Dr. Matthias Fawer, project leader for the study at Bank Sarasin.”And for 2012, our global forecast is a newly installed capacity of 50 GWth”.
However, the good global numbers cannot hide the fact that several key markets such as Germany, Australia and Spain are struggling. From 2009 to 2010, their markets have decreased by 29, 23 and 14%, respectively. In Germany and Australia, the industry suffered from stop and go policy of the incentive programmes. In Europe, much of this development is also caused by the financial crisis, whose effects are low renovation rates throughout the region and a sharp decline in building activities especially in many southern European countries. Sarasin concludes that, as a result, the higher energy standards for buildings have not yet had an impact. On the positive side, several of the BRICS countries are showing continued strength, with Brazil increasing its market by 21% and China by 17% in 2010.
The solar thermal chapter of the report titled “Solar industry: Survival of the fittest in a fiercely competitive marketplace” includes an overview of major solar thermal players in Europe as well as an article explaining the importance of cost reductions in the solar thermal industry.
Uwe Trenkner of trenkner consulting, Belgium, and Bärbel Epp of solrico, Germany, contributed information and data to the solar thermal part of the Sarasin solar industry report 2011. Most of the tables are based on data provided directly by national solar associations as well as on information from the European Solar Thermal Industry Federation (ESTIF) and the IEA Solar Heating and Cooling Programme (IEA SHC).
Copies of the Bank Sarasin sustainability study "Solar industry: Survival of the fittest in a fiercely competitive marketplace" (authors: Matthias Fawer and Balazs Magyar) are available in English and German on payment of a copyright fee of CHF 150 or EUR 120 (free to clients and the media) from: firstname.lastname@example.org.